Fiscal outcomes in a time of increasing political spin and unanticipated economic change
Professor Bob Gregory will explore federal budget outcomes, primarily tax revenue shortfalls over the last decade and a half, to explain why tax revenue forecast errors are so large, why budget deficits have become so persistent and why the implicit tax policy of government is leading to an inexorable and significant rise in personal income tax rates. This discussion is linked to economic misjudgements of Treasurers and the unanticipated structural changes that are occurring in the Australian economy. The lecture will also contain asides on how Treasurers too often divert discussion away from major longer run budget issues and how political spin, focused on the short run, has made the development of good fiscal policy difficult and weakened governments’ ability to understand the tax implications of the large structural changes occurring in the Australian economy.
Refreshments will be served prior to the lecture from 6.30pm.
Professor Bob Gregory
Professor Bob Gregory is Emeritus Professor in the Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University, where he was employed from 1969 until his retirement, and is an Honorary Professorial Fellow in the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne.
Professor Gregory has made major contributions to the development of economic policy in Australia. From 1985 to 1995 he was a member of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and from 1986 to 1991 he was a member of the Australian Sciences and Technology Council.
Professor Gregory is an elected Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences (1979) and a Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia (2001). In 1996 Professor Gregory was awarded the Order of Australia Medal and in 2005 was an awarded an Honorary Doctor of Commerce by the University of Melbourne.